Could we still see an El Niño this year ? Yes , we could . In fact , it may have started already .
Top simulacrum : Current sea surface temperatures , as of today viaNOAA
After the new El Niño update yesterday — that condition were still quite good for the electric potential of acquire an El Niño this winter , either in the remainder of this year or the start of the next — NOAA ’s Climate Prediction Center take on an interesting question : Is it possible that an El Niño may have already start out ?
With both the 65 % likeliness that we ’re getting an El Niño sometime this wintertime and some anecdotal evidence ( like California ’s sudden drouth - interrupting rains ) , it certainly looks like a theory .
So are we already in the midst of an El Niño ? Not quite , conclude NOAA , but we are quite tight . In ablog post on ENSO , NOAA sketched out just what was required for an El Niño to be confirmed with the help of this handy flowchart :
Image : Glen Becker and Fiona Martin / NOAA / CPC
So have we met all those atmospheric condition ? Some of them , but not all :
In anutshell , thetypical El Niño atmospheric responseincludes reduced rainfall over Indonesia , more rain over the key Pacific , and some weakening of the miserable - level eastern flatus and upper - stratum westerly winds ( the Walker circulation ) along the equator . As of the beginning of this month , we have seen deoxidise Indonesian rainfall , but we have not seen more pelting over the key Pacific ( the contrary , in fact ) , and changes in the Walker circulation are unclear .
So not quite an El Niño yet . But , even though we are not calling an El Niño yet , that does n’t mean the rest of the worldly concern agrees . As NOAA note , even though they ’re still not calling it an El Niño class , some other home weather services have done so :
El Niño impact can emerge in unlike parts of the ball , even if the NOAA definition has n’t yet been officially quenched . Different country have dissimilar thresholds for El Niño , which are tailored to their specific interest group . For exemplar , thePeruvian National Committee on El Niño Studies(ENFEN ) hold a “ moderate coastal El Niño ” in May of this twelvemonth ; SST anomaly in the easternmostNiño1 + 2 regionis the principal metric for their declaration of coastal El Niño . Their event peaked in July , and is still on-going .
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