If the integral Antarctic ice mainsheet were to melt , it ’s estimated that it would raise the sea level by an astonishing61 meters(200 feet ) . While this is unlikely to ever happen , if even just a fraction of it were to thaw the shock could be calamitous . With itlooking progressively likethe earthly concern will pass the crucial 2 degrees Celsius ( 3.6 degree Fahrenheit ) warming limit , a new study has found that if we carry on emitting greenhouse gases as usual , there will likely be aggregate melting of the glass shelves . But if we trend emissions now , these consequences could be avoided .
When assay to predict how mood change is likely to affect the melting of Antarctic ice rink , one of the most important aspect to understand is the ice shelves that environ the continent . These are effectively the floating platform of frosting that material body when the glaciers fit the ocean . And they can be vast ; the Ross Ice Shelf , for example , couple roughly510,000 square kilometers(200,000 straight mi ) . The shelves act a little like cork in bottles of champagne , hold back the glacier on the commonwealth and lay off them from slither into the sea and increasing global ocean levels .
Anew study , published inNature Geoscience , looks at how get up air temperatures might impact the surface melt on the massive sparkler sheets found in Antarctica , which can bear upon their constancy . When the peak of the sheets melt , the water pools on the surface and starts to trickle down the cracks and holes naturally present . This stimulate the cracks and fissures to intensify and widen , and can finally lead to the shelf collapsing wholly . This is effectivelywhat happenedto the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 , which partially give and broke apart in a matter of just a few months .
The researchers produce two models , one in which we continue burning fossil fuels in a “ business enterprise - as - usual ” scenario , and another in which we stabilize emissions fairly sharpish . What they found was that up until around 2050 , it ’s likely that surface melt will double in both situations to almost 200 gigatons ( 200 billion measured tons ) of Earth’s surface water a class . But it ’s after this point that is most interesting , as the models then start to diverge . In the one in which we stabilise emissions , surface melt does n’t increase further , but in the business - as - common simulation , melt speed up byalmost eight times .
“ Our effect instance just how rapidly melting in Antarctica can intensify in a warm climate,”explainsLuke Trusel , from theWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution , and who led the study . “ This has already pass in place like the Antarctic Peninsula where we ’ve observed warming and disconnected frappe shelf break up in the last few decade . Our model protrusion show that similar levels of thawing may occur across coastal Antarctica near the destruction of this century , put forward business about next ice shelf stableness . ”
But this is n’t as doomsday a work as it might at first sound , as it clear indicates that these upshot are entirely dependent on our own behaviour , and how much more glasshouse gas we pump into the atmosphere . If we can get on top of our emissions , as almost every climate scientist harmonize we should if we are to pull through , then the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet can hopefully be limited .
Image credit : Pen State / Flickr CC BY - NC - ND 2.0
